"There’s no binary "good idea” versus “bad idea”, just a probability of success. This probability could start low or start high."
Kinda, but if you're starting with probabilities, you're making the ludic fallacy: assuming that possible outcomes are finite, with calculable likelihoods, which brings you into a risk management frame.
I think what Aakash might be getting at is more true uncertainty: where you can't know all the possible outcomes, let alone likelihoods. Many people attempt to use formal risk management in such situations, often with consequences we can label not-good.
Post product trauma is so real. My post next Wednesday I’m going to dig into that topic a bit. Great post!
Thanks so much for being my podcast guest and sharing your consulting/advisory wisdom 😇 I learned a lot from you!
Thanks for having me!
"There’s no binary "good idea” versus “bad idea”, just a probability of success. This probability could start low or start high."
Kinda, but if you're starting with probabilities, you're making the ludic fallacy: assuming that possible outcomes are finite, with calculable likelihoods, which brings you into a risk management frame.
I think what Aakash might be getting at is more true uncertainty: where you can't know all the possible outcomes, let alone likelihoods. Many people attempt to use formal risk management in such situations, often with consequences we can label not-good.
Have you come across Vaughn Tan's work on different kinds of not-knowing? https://vaughntan.org/notknowing
Love this! One way to do this is by building small and experimenting - a great way to test ideas and mitigate risk.
Great post on placing bets in product and using your common sense.
I didnt' know Maja has a podcast - now subscribed to it and looking forward to your interview!